Utskriftsvennlig versjon10.12.2007
He has been awarded the title one of the 100 most important persons of our time by Time Magazine, and referred to as the man that makes a difference. Jan Egeland has experienced more war, more crises and human disasters from the frontline than any of us. When we wanted to grasp the situation of the global markets today, tomorrow and what we may anticipate to happen ten years ahead – Jan Egeland was our perfect candidate to talk to.
Jan Egeland has been an eyewitness to how the world has changed dramatically over the years, and his words may feel comforting; – In general, it is progress in the world, says Egeland. Economically, the world outside the established world – as he refers to as the OECD, Western-Europe, North-America and Japan – has had a phenomenal progress, and the world is a better place today than it was at the end of the cold war.
This shift, and growth in countries that previously lagged behind economically, is reflected at all levels. – In economies as well as in politics, says Egeland. He refers to the previous phenomenon of a bipolar world, with the Soviet Union and NATO as the two major forces. Since then, we have moved from the bipolar to a unipolar world, with the USA as the only remaining super power, says Egeland. These days, the landscape is changing again. – We can see a growing multipolar world, where USA, EU, China and India will be the four super powers, Egeland adds. In reference to the BRIC-countries, and the common assumption of growth and influence that these countries will have, Egeland says it is important to be aware that we will see less of Brazil and Russia than the other two. His assumptions are based on the enormous growth in population in China and India.
Reboot your mindset
– We all need to reboot our mindset, Jan Egeland says. This is in order to understand that when – in the near future – 1.3 billion people in China and India experience enormous economic growth – this will have an impact on all of us, and we should not underestimate the consequences. 1.3 billion is three times the number of people living in Western-Europe, and almost four times the number living in the USA. – Stop treating China and India as if they were developing countries, he says. We must stop considering China and India as they were any less than Great Britain or France; because they are turning into super powers. On the other hand, we cannot let either India or China get away with not taking their fair share of the global responsibility as super powers, Egeland says, with a clear reference to the climate challenge. – They cannot claim that it is not their responsibility, and on the other hand buy half of Africa and take geopolitical initiatives with great impact, he adds.
Looking ten years ahead, Egeland both hopes and thinks that we will se dramatic changes. – I have a strong hope, and a belief, that we will see Brazil and India as members of the UN Security Council and as G8 countries, Egeland says. – It makes no sense that both Italy and Canada are part of the G8, while India and China are not. In the future I think we may see a G15. These issues are important milestones, economic growth is something we will always experience and that will follow, Egeland says. I also think we will se less of Europe and North-America, Egeland continues. We may see a renaissance for the UN and multilateral co-operations, and I believe the new super powers will accept a bigger part of this co-operation. In terms of the marketplace, Egeland is optimistic about the economic growth, and contributions to social and technological progress. He firmly believes that China will become the largest world economy in the near future, although he admits that it might take more than a decade.
Dark clouds
In general we are making progress; but Egeland foresees three dark clouds on the horizon. The biggest of them all is the climate situation. – This we cannot deny or ignore, and it is happening now. We will see more natural disasters. In reference to all of GLOBAL´s readers, this is something they will need to deal with, says Egeland. We need to acknowledge that the risk of much being swept away by nature will escalate, Egeland says.
The second dark cloud Egeland foresees is challenges related to migration. – We cannot barricade either Europe or the USA; this is a truly global challenge we will have to deal with. Those who are the poorest will start to migrate as they see their opportunities far better in other countries. Like the Norwegians did a long time ago, he adds. He also fears that religious conflicts might escalate in the coming decade, especially the tension between the western economic and cultural system, and Islamic beliefs. – Here we need dialogue. We need to talk to each other instead of about each other, Egeland concludes.
DIRECTOR OF NUPI, THE NORWEGIAN INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS JAN EGELAND FORMER UNDER-SECRETARY-GENERAL FOR HUMANITARIAN AFFAIRS AND EMERGENCY RELIEF COORDINATOR AT THE UNITED NATIONS GLOBAL | No: 02 - DECEMBER 2007